Demographics: A New Balance of Power?

By the end of the century, demographic dynamics will vary widely from one part of the world to another. Population decline has already started in 63 countries. China alone could lose up to 800 million of the current 1.4 billion people. At the other extreme, the African continent is still growing rapidly. Its population could reach nearly 4 billion inhabitants compared to 1.5 billion today. The remaining countries, including France, will soon reach their demographic peak. Their current growth is linked more to immigration than to birth rates.

These dynamics will reshape the global balance: India has already overtaken China as the world’s most populous country, and by 2100, Pakistan and Nigeria are expected to become third and fourth, surpassing the US. How will this new hierarchy be reflected in geopolitical, military and economic power relations? What are the implications for the migration issue? Is demography really a power factor?