The Puzzle of Birthrates Fluctuations

After an exceptionally strong growth in the last 50 years, the world’s population is now slowing. Two-thirds of the world’s population live in a country where fertility is below the reproductive rate. Europe and China are “shrinking” and “aging”, while India is becoming the most populous country in the world. These developments have major consequences, particularly for growth and intergenerational balance. When the birth rate falls, the population ages and the pension system becomes more fragile. But at the global level, population growth seems contrary to the sustainability of our lifestyles and the preservation of natural resources. How to solve this dilemma? Is it also in the face of this ecological threat that many young people, in developed countries, give up childbearing? Or are they more personal reasons, linked in particular to the difficulty of reconciling work and family, or to the question of income and housing? In this context, do public policies have effective means? Between tax advantages, parental leave and provision of childcare arrangements, can they influence the decision to give birth and the number of children? Can they also include technological innovations in reproductive medicine and surrogacy? Or does the new demographic transition stem from the irreversible diffusion of new cultural norms? Birth rate is a private matter, but demography is a crucial issue for any society.