Does Trump control trade relations?

Donald Trump had three objectives in mind with his tariff decisions in February and April 2026:

– Reindustrialize the United States,

– Divert $400 billion to $600 billion from international trade to fund tax cuts for the wealthy in th e United States,

– Make the United States a dominant imperial power.

Reindustrialization, tax revenue, hegemony: Trump’s trade agenda

To achieve these objectives, he introduced massive tariffs in March-April 2025, raising average duties from 3% to 15% according to some estimates, and around 12% after negotiations with US partners in autumn 2025. Contrary to Trump’s expectations, over 95% of these tariffs will be paid for by American consumers in the form of higher prices.

If Trump thinks he’s impacting world trade to the benefit of the United States, he hasn’t taken into account the fact that while the United States accounts for 23% of world GDP, in nominal and PPP terms, it only accounts for 11.5% of world trade (import + export shares). Trump’s trade policy has prompted other countries, such as the European Union with Mercosur, India and Japan, to multiply their trade agreements to bypass the United States.

Massive tariffs passed on to American consumers

In addition, on February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated tariffs taken on the basis of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA, 1977), as IEEPA does not give the President the power to impose tariffs, a power that belongs exclusively to Congress. All tariffs were invalidated as of February 24, 2026.

Supreme Court strikes down IEEPA: Congress regains control

In March 2026, Trump launched a Section 301 (Trade Act of 1974) investigation into industrial overcapacity in 16 economies (China, EU, Mexico, Japan, etc.) and imposed a 10% tariff based on Section 122 (Trade Act of 1974). But on May 7, 2026, the US Court of International Trade (CIT) struck down the 10% tariff on the basis of section 122. The Section 301 investigation remains. However, the European Union has agreed to maintain the 10% tariff.

Trump does not control international trade, but he is isolating the United States in international trade. Nevertheless, certain measures taken, notably against the EU and China, remain in place. Above all, the country that guaranteed the International Order from 1944 to 2024 appears as a predator and justifies the return of force in international relations. At this stage, the United States’ imperial economic policy is hurting the United States and its allies more than its enemies, and has not contributed to the country’s reindustrialization.

Towards what trade order after Trump?

What can we anticipate about the evolution of international trade at the intersection of Trump’s measures and the decisions of the US Courts over the next few years? Can we imagine a return to the United States’ former role as guarantor of International Order, or is it over forever? What might US trade policy look like in a multipolar world after Trump?