Des primo entrants aux seniors, un marché du travail au ralenti

After the post-Covid rebound, the French labor market is slowing: unemployment reached 7.9% at the end of 2025, despite a relatively high employment rate (69.4%, INSEE). However, this remains about 10 percentage points lower than in Germany and the Nordic countries, with implications for growth and public finances. Two groups account for much of the vulnerability: older workers, whose employment rate among 60–64-year-olds (42.4% in 2024) remains well below the OECD average (56%) and Germany (67%); and young people, at around 34%, despite a recent increase linked to apprenticeships, compared with 50–60% in several European countries. In an ageing context, raising the employment rate appears central to supporting GDP per capita.

These vulnerabilities stem from well-identified mechanisms: labor market dualism, a mismatch between initial education and employers’ needs, early exit from the labor market, and age-related discrimination. The rise of AI is also reshaping these dynamics. How can employment policies and workplace organization adapt to these transformations?