Europe After Convergence: Governing Permanent Transition
Industrie, Tech & Innovation
Summary based on Tatiana Molcean’s text by Le Cercle des économistes
Europe is undergoing a profound transformation. The reference points that have structured the European order since the end of the Cold War have weakened under the combined effects of geopolitical tensions, economic slowdown, demographic ageing, climate risks, and declining trust in institutions. To these challenges may soon be added a new major transition: that of peace and reconstruction in Ukraine. Long seen as a temporary stage leading toward a more stable future, transition has become a permanent condition. The challenge for Europe is no longer to complete it, but to govern it.
The end of convergence and the rise of overlapping transitions
After 1989, Europe was built around a promise of convergence toward liberal democracy, market economies, and European integration. This dynamic brought significant progress in terms of prosperity, modernisation, and freedom. However, the benefits of this transformation were unevenly distributed. The 2008 financial crisis, the annexation of Crimea, the war in Ukraine, and the Covid-19 pandemic have progressively challenged the idea of linear progress. The narrative of convergence no longer suffices to provide a shared sense of meaning for reforms and the sacrifices demanded of citizens.
The defining feature of our era lies in the coexistence of multiple transitions that reinforce one another. The war in Ukraine has reshaped security and energy questions. Demographic ageing is transforming labour markets and public finances. Economic slowdown is reducing fiscal room for manoeuvre, while the ecological transition requires substantial investment. At the same time, trust in institutions is weakening, making reforms more difficult to implement. Finally, a future peace in Ukraine would open a vast reconstruction agenda. These developments cannot be addressed separately: they form a system of interdependencies that reshapes European priorities.
Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and the infrastructure of adaptation
Central and Eastern Europe should not only be seen as a region that has caught up economically. Its experience of reforms, institutional rebuilding, and rapid adaptation constitutes a valuable source of lessons for the entire continent. These countries have learned that laws and institutions alone are not sufficient: trust, administrative capacity, and citizen engagement are equally essential for successful transformation.
A just and lasting peace in Ukraine would open one of the largest reconstruction efforts Europe has seen since the Second World War. This would involve not only repairing destroyed infrastructure, but also strengthening public institutions, essential services, energy networks, and local economies. This reconstruction must be prepared today in order to ensure effective coordination between Ukraine, European partners, and international organisations.
Much of Europe’s stability also rests on discreet but essential forms of cooperation. Common standards, statistical systems, transport networks, energy policies, and environmental cooperation constitute the silent infrastructure that enables societies to function and adapt. These mechanisms often remain invisible until the moment they stop working.
Demographic change, trust, and governing permanent transition
Demographic ageing is one of the most structuring changes for Europe’s future. It affects healthcare systems, pensions, housing, care policies, and labour market functioning. It also calls for a rethinking of intergenerational relations and a better use of all available human resources. Longer life expectancy should be seen as a collective achievement that requires institutional adaptation.
Trust is a true economic and political infrastructure. Societies with high levels of trust are more capable of accepting reforms, investing in the long term, and coping with crises. Conversely, distrust increases the cost of every transformation. The quality of public administration, transparency in decision-making, and fairness in policy design therefore become essential conditions for stability and effective governance.
Resilience is not only about resisting shocks, but about adapting while preserving fundamental goals of prosperity, sustainability, and peace. To achieve this, public policies must go beyond GDP indicators and integrate issues such as well-being, social cohesion, trust, and long-term sustainability more systematically.
Faced with this new reality, Europe must strengthen its institutions, adapt its economic and social model to demographic change, prepare for Ukraine’s reconstruction, and preserve the cooperative mechanisms that have ensured its stability. Political leaders must also be more transparent about uncertainties and the trade-offs required in a world of constant change.
Conclusion: bearings without illusions
The certainties that guided Europe after 1989 are no longer sufficient to orient its future. Yet the continent possesses considerable assets: strong institutions, long experience of cooperation, and a proven ability to overcome crises. In a world marked by permanent transitions, the challenge is not to recover past stability, but to build institutions capable of adaptation, of preserving citizens’ trust, and of preparing the future with lucidity. The reconstruction of Ukraine, demographic adaptation, and the ecological transition will be at the heart of this new stage in European history.