Who Will Win the Chip War?

Semiconductors have become a major strategic issue, with a value chain that is more concentrated than ever: from Taiwan for manufacturing, to the Netherlands for lithography, to China for critical metals, and the United States for design software. The rise of AI is amplifying this vulnerability: demand for advanced chips is skyrocketing, and with it, tensions. The logic of technological warfare is already at work: U.S. controls on high-performance graphics processing units (GPUs), Chinese restrictions on metals, and military pressure on Taiwan.

In this dynamic, large corporations act as quasi-sovereign powers, each with their own strategies. Faced with this dual concentration (geographical and industrial), what assets and room for maneuver do others have: Europe, India, Japan, Korea, and Southern countries rich in critical materials? Should they invest in production, or master disruptive technologies? Is it still possible to envision effective multilateral governance that brings peace and shared prosperity?