France in the World, with and without Europe?

From 1980 to 2050, France’s share in global GDP will drop from 7% to probably 2%. The fourth-largest economy on the planet 25 years ago, France will no longer be in the G7 35 years down the line. By 2050, the European Union will continue to account for 8.5% to 13.5% of global GDP, depending on its membership. The question to ask is thus whether France’s foreign strategy should be determined entirely at the European level, or whether the European strategy can be rounded out by action through other communities, such as the French-speaking world, or the Mediterranean, two highly-dynamic units from the demographic standpoint.

A country does not express its power only through its economy or demographics, however: its science, culture, enterprises and values also contribute to building its international influence.

In this debate, we will first take stock of France’s and Europe’s influence in international institutions and cooperation circles, as well as in business, the sciences and culture. Then, we will try to identify the most effective way for France to defend its preferences in cooperation and regulation, as opposed to market self-regulation. Discussion can take shape around different scenarios, in particular on the future of the European Union.