Recession: avoided or delayed?

Despite the rise in interest rates in response to the rebound in inflation, the predicted recession is not here. At most, we are seeing a clear slowdown in activity. Has this recession been avoided or postponed? The question is whether the growth regime, despite a weaker potential trend than before, is now more stable, with less pronounced cycles thanks to the cushioning role of savings stocks and the sustained high level of investment imposed by the imperative of climate change and rearmament policies. Or is it because of the expansion of a service economy, backed by the digital revolution, which reduces the jolts in stocks and cyclical adjustments in the industrial goods markets? Or, conversely, is there not a risk that the future growth regime will once again combine phases of overheating and recession, in the face of increased risks of exogenous shocks linked to financial cycles or of a geopolitical nature on the international energy or raw materials markets?