Resilience of Latin America and the Caribbean:Regional Responses to Global Challenges

Introduction

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) face a persistent combination of structural problems and emerging challenges that have constrained development. Key obstacles include poverty, exclusion, corruption, indebtedness, violence, and political instability, all exacerbated by global phenomena such as international polarization, supply chain disruptions, climate change, transnational crime, and the lasting effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

 Demographic Transformations

With a population of 663 million (ECLAC, 2024), LAC represents just over 8% of the global population. The region has undergone an unexpected demographic transition that has deepened structural inequalities: the population under 15 years old dropped from 41% in 1950 to 22.5% in 2024, while those aged 15 to 64 rose to 67.6%. Fertility rates declined to 1.7 children per woman—below the replacement threshold of 2.1. Life expectancy stands at 78.9 years for women and 72.6 for men (2020).

Regional Economic Performance

Between 2015 and 2024, regional economic growth was low (0.9% average annual), with a projected rate of 1.8% for 2025. By subregion: South America is expected to grow 1.5%, Central America and Mexico 2.2%, and the Caribbean (excluding Guyana) 2.6%. Contributing factors include limited fiscal capacity, commodity price volatility, low investment and productivity, and geopolitical tensions. In 2024, average tax revenues reached 18.6% of GDP, showing only slight improvement over 2023.

Migration and Social Vulnerability

The number of immigrants in LAC doubled from 7 million (1990) to nearly 15 million (2020). In 2024, around 1.39 million people from 177 countries crossed Mexico en route to the U.S., with notable flows from Venezuela, Guatemala, Honduras, Ecuador, and Haiti. Migration reflects not only poverty and violence but also the failure of political and economic systems to offer dignified living conditions.

Democracy and Electoral Processes

In 2024, presidential elections took place in six countries: continuity prevailed in El Salvador, Mexico, the Dominican Republic, and Venezuela, while Panama and Uruguay elected new leadership. Subnational elections in Brazil, Costa Rica, Chile, and Mexico revealed low female representation. Elections are scheduled in Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, Haiti, Honduras, and Guyana for 2025. LAC has one of the highest proportions of population under electoral democratic regimes (62%), though populism and institutional tensions remain strong.

Regional Peace

The region maintains a formal commitment to peace, as expressed in the Treaty of Tlatelolco (1967) and CELAC’s Proclamation of Latin America and the Caribbean as a Zone of Peace (2014). Nonetheless, it is not immune to diplomatic disputes and internal political tensions.

Relations with the U.S. and China

U.S. policy has shifted toward protectionism and unilateral pressure—tariffs, sanctions, and anti-immigration measures—under the “America First” vision and revival of the Monroe Doctrine. In contrast, China has strengthened its role in LAC as a trade and financial partner, especially with Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Peru. Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), over 20 countries have received investment in infrastructure and energy. However, this relationship entails risks of dependency and demands a diversification of cooperation into science, innovation, and clean energy.

 

Energy Transition: Opportunities and Challenges

LAC has exceptional conditions to lead the energy transition, with vast solar, wind, hydroelectric, and geothermal potential. However, the region remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Advancing the transition will require investment in infrastructure, better mining contracts, respect for local communities, and access to financing and clean technologies. Local participation in green technology value chains (e.g., electric vehicle batteries) is crucial.

Regional Multilateral Organizations

The region has one of the largest numbers of multilateral organizations, many of which have proven ineffective. CELAC, the OAS, MERCOSUR, the Pacific Alliance, OLADE, and CARICOM face institutional and political limitations. Their strengthening requires political will, inclusive decision-making, and integration based on shared goals. Currently, fragmentation hampers coordinated regional responses to global challenges.

European Presence and New Actors

Beyond the U.S. and China, European powers such as France, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands maintain a regional presence, particularly in the Caribbean. France participates as an observer in CARICOM, promoting environmental and educational initiatives. The UK retains ties with five Caribbean territories, and the Netherlands with six islands and three special municipalities, providing development aid and security cooperation.

Conclusion

LAC faces a complex agenda shaped by structural challenges and global transformations. Regional resilience demands strategic alliances with global actors, concrete progress on the SDGs, a just energy transition, and strengthened multilateral mechanisms. However, the absence of regional leadership—neither Brazil nor Mexico currently leads an integration process—undermines prospects for cooperation. The region needs accessible investment and technology transfer to add value to its exports and reduce geopolitical vulnerability. With sovereignty-respecting agreements and effective horizontal cooperation, LAC can emerge as a more just, integrated, and competitive region.