Value Chains, Towards New Fragmentations

Global value chains are being reshaped by geopolitical tensions, rising protectionism – particularly in the United States –, the decline of multilateralism, and climate imperatives. This "slowbalization" challenges the logic of comparative advantages and encourages the concentration of trade and production processes around regional blocs and new strategic partnerships (friend-shoring, reshoring). However, it is important to distinguish between the macroeconomic dynamics of value chain restructuring and the microeconomic logic specific to businesses. Technological progress, by reducing costs, promotes regional relocation, but its impact varies depending on sectors and the integration structure of businesses, whether vertical or horizontal. Furthermore, the proliferation of bilateral agreements complicates trade governance. In the face of these challenges, the European Union is at a decisive turning point: it must secure its supplies, maintain the energy transition, and adapt its industrial model by developing new alliances to ensure its competitiveness. With the decline of the United States as the guarantor of free trade and the rise of new commercial powers, what will be the new poles of influence in global trade? To what extent will the strengthening of regional blocs and the development of new trade routes reshape international trade and global value chains?