Globalization in an Age of Uncertainties

The post-WWII multilateral system is based on a stable and predictable regulatory framework. By imposing the principles of non-discrimination and reciprocity, the system has led to a significant reduction in trade barriers which has fostered their development. Since 2018, the architecture of the multilateral trading system has been eroded. The WTO dispute settlement body is inoperative due to lack of agreement on the appointment of its members. At the same time, the Trump administration has introduced unilateral tariffs, marking a break with the principles of regulated trade. These tensions have led to persistent uncertainty in international trade. The first months of Donald Trump’s second term have exacerbated these tensions, with the new US president talking about universal tariffs in the 10-25% range. What are the effects of this uncertainty? Should we expect a decline in globalization or a reconfiguration of interdependencies? How can companies and governments adapt to a more fragmented economic environment? How can the objectives of economic sovereignty be reconciled with international cooperation, which is more necessary than ever? How can the future architecture of world trade be envisaged in this context?